Paul Zielinski
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Open to conversations · NYC Metro
CORPORATE FP&A · STRATEGIC FINANCE · STRESS TESTING
◦ FANWOOD, NJ · NYC METRO

The firm forecast,
in time to act on it.

17 years at Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan. Today, the quarterly forecast and CFO-approved budget for Morgan Stanley's firm P&L, $70.6B in FY2025 net revenues, run by a forecasting team hired from scratch on a cycle cut from 6 weeks to 4.5. CCAR / DFAST stress scenario modeling, the 10-year long-range forecast, and the Board and CFO materials that carry them.

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Current VP, Corporate FP&A · Morgan Stanley
Credentials MBA · Syracuse, Whitman
Systems TM1 · Vena · SAP
Paul Zielinski
PZ · NYC METRO2026
0
YEARS IN BANK FINANCE
$0.0B
FIRM P&L FORECAST, FY2025
6.0wks
FORECAST CYCLE, FROM 6
#7
MIDDLE MARKET IB RANK, FROM #7
THE THESIS

A forecast is only useful
before the decision.

Most firm forecasts are finished in time to explain the quarter, not to change it. The ones that matter arrive fast enough to act on, granular enough to trust, stress-tested before the cycle starts, and long enough to shape strategy. That is the forecast built at Morgan Stanley, and the one worth building anywhere a P&L has to be run rather than reported.

FOUR PROPERTIES OF A FORECAST YOU CAN ACT ON
SIGNATURE WORK

One foundation. Three horizons.

The quarterly forecast, the CCAR / DFAST stress scenario and the 10-year long-range forecast all start from the same below-the-business view of the firm. Pick a horizon to see what each one is for.

FIRM P&L · 3 SEGMENTS · QUARTERLY
SCHEMATIC · SHAPE ONLY · NO INTERNAL FIGURES SHOWNACTUALS · BASE FORECAST · BAND
ACTUALS
FORECAST
HORIZON4 QUARTERS
01 · QUARTERLY FORECAST

The firm P&L, forecast below the business level.

Run every quarter for the consolidated firm: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management, headcount and compensation included. The forecast is built below the business level, cash equities, derivatives and prime brokerage rather than total equities, so the firm view holds when one business surprises. The CFO-approved budget and the actual versus forecast variance analysis come out of the same process.

THE FORECAST CYCLE

Six weeks to four and a half, 25% shorter.

A forecast that lands after the decisions are made is a history. Removing immaterial inputs, automating tasks with AI and moving senior management reports to direct system pulls took a week and a half out of the cycle without taking the review out of it.

BEFORE
6.0 wks
AFTER
4.5 wks
REMOVED
Inputs that do not move the firm view.
AUTOMATED
Tasks handled with AI, reports pulled straight from the systems.
RESET
Deadlines pulled forward to match the decision calendar.
ABOUT

Seventeen years on the side of finance that turns numbers into decisions.

Three of the largest banks in the world, in order: JPMorgan, where the work was calculating performance and investment management fees for hundreds of institutional accounts each month and finding the billing errors where fees did not match the client agreement. Then eleven years at Bank of America Merrill Lynch: FP&A for Global Banking and Markets, strategy and business analytics for the investment bank, and strategic risk for the firm.

At Morgan Stanley since July 2022, the job is the firm forecast itself. When the role began, the forecasting team was essentially one person. Hiring all four of my direct reports, promoting two of them, and building the process from the ground up came first. Today that team runs the quarterly forecast and CFO-approved budget across Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management, produces the 10-year long-range forecast, and builds the pro forma model senior leaders use to choose the firm's CCAR / DFAST stress scenario.

The next role is VP, Executive Director or Director in FP&A, strategic finance, strategy or risk, somewhere a forecast built fast enough and deep enough to act on changes what leadership decides. MBA in Finance and Business Analytics from Syracuse, Whitman. BSBA in Finance from Rider.

Paul Zielinski
Paul Zielinski
MBA · FANWOOD, NJ · NYC METRO
CASE STUDIES

Three places where the analysis changed the decision.

01
MORGAN STANLEY · JUL 2022 TO PRESENT
Vice President, Forecasting and Analytics, Corporate FP&A
4 of 4
DIRECT REPORTS HIRED IN ROLE
THE TEAM BUILT FROM SCRATCH

A forecasting team hired from scratch, then a cycle cut by a quarter.

When the role began, the forecasting team was essentially one person. Hiring all 4 direct reports came first, and 2 of the 4 have since been promoted. With the team in place, the forecast cycle went from 6 weeks to 4.5 by removing immaterial inputs and automating tasks with AI. Senior management reports became direct system pulls, and the pre-tax profit workstream of the Vena to IBM Planning Analytics (TM1) migration, mappings and data pipes included, ran out of the same group.

6 to 4.5
CYCLE, WEEKS
2 of 4
PROMOTED
TM1
PBT MIGRATION LED
02
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH · MAY 2015 TO MAY 2021
Vice President, Strategy and Business Analytics, Global Corporate and Investment Banking
#7 to #3
MIDDLE MARKET IB RANK, DEALOGIC
THE SHARE ANALYSIS LEADERSHIP ADOPTED

The analysis that grew Middle Market IB from 8 bankers to about 30.

Co-led, in a two-person team, the share analysis leadership adopted to expand Middle Market Investment Banking coverage. Over several years the group grew from 8 to about 30 bankers, and the added coverage helped lift market share from about 4.5% to about 8% and league table rank from #7 to #3 on Dealogic. The work earned the Platinum award, the top tier, from the Head of Middle Market IB. Scorecards built for about 500 MD and Director bankers, combining Dealogic deal and pipeline data with client coverage data, are still used to set banker pay and bonuses.

4.5% to 8%
SHARE, APPROX.
500
BANKER SCORECARDS, APPROX.
PLATINUM
TOP-TIER AWARD
03
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH · MAY 2021 TO JUL 2022
Vice President, Strategic Risk Manager, Global Risk Management
3
ANALYSTS LED ON FIRM-LEVEL RISK
THE DEPOSIT OUTFLOW CALL

Flagging deposit outflows to fintechs while rates were still low.

Led 3 direct-report analysts covering firm-level strategic risk from large banks, smaller banks and fintechs, and tracked how unemployment, GDP and inflation affected specific businesses to flag threats to the Strategic Plan. The clearest call of the period: COVID-era deposit outflows to fintechs offering higher yields and personalized accounts. Deposits landed at BofA first, then moved. Macro and competitive risk assessments became long-term growth initiatives with executive leadership, aligning line of business plans to firmwide goals.

MACRO
UNEMPLOYMENT, GDP, INFLATION
FINTECH
DEPOSIT RISK FLAGGED
LOB PLANS
ALIGNED TO FIRM GOALS
THE APPROACH

Four properties of a forecast leadership will act on.

Built running the firm forecast at Morgan Stanley and the strategy and risk work at Bank of America. Applied in order. Each one is a design choice, not a reporting choice.

01
FAST ENOUGH TO ACT ON

Finish the forecast while the quarter can still change.

A six-week cycle delivers a number leadership reads after the decisions are made. The cycle at Morgan Stanley went from 6 weeks to 4.5 by removing immaterial inputs, automating tasks with AI, and moving senior management reports to direct system pulls. The point was never speed for its own sake. It was giving business and capital heads a forecast with time left to use it.

WHAT TO CUT
Inputs that do not move the firm view. Manual report assembly. Deadlines set by habit rather than by the decision calendar.
WHAT TO KEEP
Review time with the businesses. The steering committee approval. The Board and CFO narrative, written from the result rather than around it.
02
GRANULAR ENOUGH TO TRUST

Forecast below the business level.

Total equities is a reporting line, not a forecasting unit. Cash equities, derivatives and prime brokerage move for different reasons, so the forecast is built at that level and rolled up. The same logic runs across Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management, with headcount and compensation planned inside the forecast rather than beside it.

THE UNIT
The level at which the driver is visible: product, desk, headcount line.
THE PAYOFF
Variance analysis that explains itself, and a firm view that holds when one business surprises.
03
STRESS-TESTED BEFORE THE CYCLE

Know the stress result before the cycle asks for it.

The pro forma model senior leaders use to choose the firm's CCAR / DFAST stress scenario is built in this role, and pre-cycle estimates typically land within 3% of final results. That accuracy is what makes scenario selection a decision rather than a guess, and what lets forecast and stress results go to steering committees with business and capital heads as one story.

INPUTS
The same below-the-business forecast foundation, run under the scenario's macro path.
OUTPUT
A scenario choice leadership can defend, and estimates close enough to the final to plan capital against.
04
LONG ENOUGH TO SHAPE STRATEGY

Give the ten-year question a ten-year model.

Moving assets across businesses or evaluating a potential acquisition cannot be judged on a quarterly forecast. The 10-year long-range forecast exists to test those strategies on the same foundation as the quarter, so the strategic answer and the operating forecast never disagree about the starting point. At Bank of America the same instinct produced the share analysis that grew Middle Market IB from 8 to about 30 bankers.

QUESTIONS IT ANSWERS
Asset moves across businesses. Acquisition impact. Coverage expansion by product, region and industry.
WHO USES IT
Senior leaders choosing between strategies, and the Board and CFO materials that present the result.
CAREER

17 years of bank finance, strategy and risk.

JUL 2022 TO PRESENT
Vice President, Forecasting and Analytics, Corporate FP&A
MORGAN STANLEY · NEW YORK, NY
Run the quarterly forecast and CFO-approved budget for the firm P&L, $70.6B in FY2025 net revenues, across Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management, headcount and compensation included. Built the forecasting team from scratch: hired all 4 direct reports and promoted 2 of the 4. Cut the forecast cycle from 6 to 4.5 weeks. Produce the 10-year long-range forecast used to test asset moves and potential acquisitions. Build the pro forma model senior leaders use to choose the CCAR / DFAST stress scenario, with pre-cycle estimates typically within 3% of final results. Present forecast and stress results at steering committees and prepare all Board and CFO materials on the forecast and the firm narrative.
$70.6B FIRM P&L
4 HIRES, 2 PROMOTED
6 TO 4.5 WKS
MAY 2021 TO JUL 2022
Vice President, Strategic Risk Manager
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH · GLOBAL RISK MANAGEMENT · NEW YORK, NY
Led 3 direct-report analysts covering firm-level strategic risk from large banks, smaller banks and fintechs. Tracked how unemployment, GDP and inflation affected specific businesses to flag threats to the Strategic Plan. Flagged COVID-era deposit outflows to fintechs: deposits landed at BofA, then moved for higher yields. Turned macro and competitive risk assessments into growth initiatives, aligning business line plans to firm goals.
3 ANALYSTS
MACRO AND FINTECH RISK
MAY 2015 TO MAY 2021
Vice President, Strategy and Business Analytics
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH · GLOBAL CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANKING · NEW YORK, NY
Co-led, in a two-person team, the share analysis leadership adopted to expand Middle Market IB coverage from 8 to about 30 bankers; the added bankers helped lift share from about 4.5% to about 8% and rank from #7 to #3 on Dealogic. Earned the top-tier Platinum award. Built scorecards for about 500 MD and Director bankers, still used to set banker pay and bonuses. Pinpointed rank and share gaps by product, region and industry, including healthcare and consumer and retail, for Quarterly Business Reviews.
#7 TO #3 RANK
PLATINUM AWARD
500 SCORECARDS
APR 2011 TO MAY 2015
Associate, Global Banking and Markets FP&A
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH · NEW YORK, NY
Led monthly finance reviews and performance reporting with 4 to 6 COOs and Business Heads, mostly in Equities. Produced operating budgets, multi-year forecasts and operational KPIs for Global Banking and Markets. Helped cut clearing and exchange fees on trading activity by under 1 cent per trade.
4 TO 6 COOS
MULTI-YEAR FORECASTS
DEC 2009 TO APR 2011
Analyst, Asset Management, Institutional Client Operations
JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO. · NEWARK, DE
Calculated performance and investment management fees for hundreds of institutional accounts each month, applying each client's SLA fee agreement, AUM tiers and relationship structure to every calculation. Found billing errors where fees did not match client agreements at AUM thresholds.
HUNDREDS OF ACCOUNTS
FEE CONTROLS
CREDENTIALS

Education, systems and recognition.

GRADUATE
Master of Business Administration
Syracuse University, Martin J. Whitman School of Management. Finance and Business Analytics.
SYRACUSE, NY · 2021
UNDERGRADUATE
BSBA, Finance
Rider University. Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Finance, with a minor in Economics.
LAWRENCEVILLE, NJ · 2009
SYSTEMS AND RECOGNITION
IBM PLANNING ANALYTICS (TM1)
VENA
HYPERION / ESSBASE
SAP
DEALOGIC
TABLEAU
POWER BI (MBA)
VENA TO TM1 MIGRATION · PBT WORKSTREAM
PLATINUM AWARD · MIDDLE MARKET IB
TOP PERFORMANCE TIER · EVERY YEAR AT BOFA AND MORGAN STANLEY
GET IN TOUCH

A P&L that needs running, not reporting.

Open to conversations about VP, Executive Director and Director roles in FP&A, strategic finance, strategy and risk. Based in Fanwood, NJ, in the New York City metro. New York City, Morristown, Jersey City or remote.

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